How to avoid developing a failed product by mapping assumptions?
When developing a product, we inevitably operate under assumptions—about our customers, their needs, the market, and even the technology we rely on. While assumptions are a natural part of innovation, they can also become a major risk factor if left unchecked. This is where assumption mapping comes in. Assumption mapping helps teams identify, categorize, and prioritize the assumptions that we are making during the discovery phase so that we can test the riskiest ones before committing to development.
In this article, we’ll explain how to use a simple 2×2 assumption mapping matrix to spot your riskiest assumptions. By the end, you’ll have a clear framework for addressing the most critical unknowns before moving forward with your product.
What is assumption mapping?
Assumption mapping is a visual method used to categorize and prioritize assumptions by plotting them on a 2×2 matrix. The matrix helps teams identify which assumptions require immediate validation and which are less critical.
In the discovery phase, teams often make assumptions about:
- Customer needs and behaviors
- Market fit
- Product functionality and usability
- Technical feasibility
- Business viability
Identifying the assumptions upfront helps product teams focus on testing the ones that could cause the biggest issues if they prove false.
Building the assumption mapping matrix
The assumption mapping template is a simple yet powerful tool that helps you visualize your assumptions. It is a 2×2 grid with “Evidence” on the X-axis and “Risk” on the Y-axis.
- X-Axis (No Evidence → Evidence):
- Assumptions placed on the right side of the axis have strong supporting evidence.
- Assumptions placed on the left side of the axis lack evidence and are largely speculative.
- Y-Axis (High Risk → Low Risk):
- Assumptions placed at the top of the axis represent high-risk assumptions that could jeopardize the product’s success if wrong.
- Assumptions placed at the bottom are lower risk and have less impact if they prove incorrect.
Here’s how the matrix looks:
Step-by-Step guide to assumption mapping
1. Identify your assumptions
Start by brainstorming all the assumptions you are making about the product. These assumptions could be about:
- Customer Behavior: “Our target customers will prefer online ordering over in-person.”
- Market: “There is sufficient demand for a premium version of this product.”
- Technology: “We can integrate with this third-party API without performance issues.”
- Business: “Our current pricing model will generate enough revenue to be profitable.”
Write down each assumption on sticky notes or in a digital tool like Miro.
2. Plot the Assumptions on the Matrix
Once you’ve identified your assumptions, start placing them on the matrix based on their level of evidence and level of risk:
- Evidence: Do you have data, research, or past experience that backs up the assumption, or are you working with a hypothesis that hasn’t been validated yet?
- Risk: How critical is this assumption to the product’s success? If the assumption is wrong, will it result in major setbacks, or is it a smaller issue that can be managed?
Assumption mapping example:
- A critical assumption with no evidence, such as “Users will pay a premium for convenience,” should be placed in the top left quadrant (high-risk, low-evidence).
- A low-risk assumption with strong evidence, like “We can build this feature within 2 months,” might be placed in the bottom left quadrant (low-risk, high-evidence).
3. Identify the most critical assumptions
The assumptions that fall into the top right quadrant (high risk, high evidence) are the most dangerous. These are assumptions that you must validate before you proceed with product development. If these assumptions prove to be incorrect, they could undermine the entire product.
For example:
- Critical Assumption: “Customers will use our app daily.”
- Risk: If wrong, your engagement strategy fails, and the product could become irrelevant.
- Evidence: None, since you haven’t tested this behavior yet.
This is a high-risk assumption with no evidence to support it, so it needs to be tested and validated early.
4. Plan tests for critical assumptions
Once you’ve identified your critical assumptions, create a plan to test them. Testing can be done through various methods, such as:
- Customer interviews: Talking directly to your target customers to understand their behavior and preferences.
- Surveys and polls: Gathering quantitative data to validate assumptions around preferences or demand.
- Prototypes and MVPs: Building lightweight versions of your product to see how users interact with it.
- Market research: Analyzing data to ensure there’s demand for your product in the market.
For example:
- Test for critical assumption: “Customers will pay a premium for convenience.”
- Plan: Run an experiment where users are asked to choose between a basic and premium version of your product and measure their willingness to pay more.
5. Revisit and refine
Assumption mapping is not a one-time activity. Continuously revisit your matrix throughout the product development lifecycle. As you gather more evidence and insights, adjust your assumptions and reprioritise accordingly. You’ll also encounter new assumptions as you progress, which should be mapped and tested.
Why assumption mapping is crucial
Assumption mapping prevents product teams from moving forward based on false beliefs or untested ideas. By identifying the riskiest assumptions early, you can:
- Minimize waste: Avoid investing time and resources in features or products based on faulty assumptions.
- Increase confidence: Build a product that better aligns with real customer needs and market demand by validating key assumptions early on.
- Foster innovation: Take informed risks by systematically testing assumptions and learning from the results, rather than following hunches or gut feelings.
Conclusion: Prioritize risk to build better products
Assumption mapping helps product teams make smarter decisions during the discovery phase. By plotting assumptions on a 2×2 matrix and identifying those with the highest risk and least evidence, you can focus your efforts on testing and validating the critical factors that will determine your product’s success. Before you dive into development, ensure your assumptions hold up under scrutiny—this will ultimately save you time, money, and potential failure.
